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Arisaig Africa Diary
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February 2010
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February was
another steady month for the Africa Fund. Our NAV per share
rose 0.3%, recouping the loss in January and resulting in a
flat return for the year.
Performance was dominated by the opposing trajectories of
four of our heavyweight markets. Turkey and South Africa
both fell, down 7.7% and 6.9% respectively in US dollar
terms. Kenya and Nigeria both rose, up 10.3% and 9.7%.
Early pacemakers for the year include Unilever Nigeria
(+34.4%) and Commercial International Bank (+13.6%),
whilst brewers SOLBRA and Brasseries du Maroc
slid further into negative territory (-24.5% and -9.8%).
Results Day
Our two sub-Saharan mobile phone operators Sonatel
and Zain Zambia both reported decent FY09 numbers.
Sonatel's earnings increased 20% YOY whilst revenues grew by
6%; it now yields a thumping 10% dividend and is by far the
largest cash business operating in Mali, Senegal,
Guinea-Bissau, and Guinea-Conakry.
Zain's earnings increased 2% YOY (14% adjusting for one-off
write-downs in 4Q09), its revenues were up by 14%, and
subscribers grew 15%. Given the turmoil in the Zambian
economy in 2009, we think this was a pretty good outcome.
Our Near Eastern banks beat Arisaig estimates. BLOM’s
net profit grew 17% YOY, which reflects both the more
attractive USD yield curve for much of the year and the
resilient character of the average depositor and borrower in
the Levant. Commercial International Bank saw
earnings increase 25% YOY which again surprised us on the
upside.
Guinness Nigeria’s first half revenues increased 24%
but earnings fell 11%, albeit with all of the pain coming in
the first quarter, reflecting the consequences of the
depreciation of the Naira in late 2008/early 2009.
East African Breweries announced that half-year
revenue grew 3 percent to KES 18.6 billion, but earnings
contracted 9%. |
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The Arisaig Africa Fund is a
daily valued, open-ended, Mauritius domiciled Investment
Company, listed on the Irish Stock Exchange. The Fund’s NAV
is shown in the Financial Times and on Bloomberg under
ARIAFRI MP. This Diary is intended to be for the information
of holders of the Arisaig Africa Fund. It is not intended to
constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon
as such. Investors should be aware that the Fund is invested
in the securities of smaller companies, whose share prices
can be more volatile and trading liquidity much lower than
those of larger companies. |
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ARISAIG PARTNERS
Al Fattan Marine Towers II, First Floor, Office 115, Dubai
Marina, Dubai
United Arab Emirates
Tel (971) 4399 4969 / Fax (971) 4 399 4970 |
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